HONG KONG, November 11 — The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) maintained the Standby Signal No. 1 on Tuesday as Tropical Cyclone Phoenix continued its slow northward track, expected to pass the territory at a safe distance while interacting with a seasonal monsoon. Issued originally on Monday afternoon at 12:20 p.m., the alert remains in effect while forecasters track the system’s trajectory toward Taiwan.
Phoenix was located within 800 kilometers of the city on Monday and has since edged closer to the Guangdong coastline. Despite its proximity, the HKO indicated that the likelihood of upgrading the warning to the Strong Wind Signal No. 3 remained low, barring an unexpected shift in its path closer to the coast.
Dual Weather Forces Influence Local Conditions
The cyclonic system, though not forecast for a direct hit, is creating noticeable impacts due to its synergy with the prevailing northeast monsoon. The HKO projects that Phoenix will make its closest approach late Tuesday or Tuesday night, passing more than 400 kilometers east of Hong Kong before moving toward the Taiwan region and gradually weakening.
Under the combined influence of the tropical cyclone and the monsoon, wind speeds are expected to increase, particularly in exposed areas. Offshore waters are forecast to experience north to northeast strong winds, with gale force gusts possible at higher elevations. However, topographical shielding is anticipated to prevent generalized strong winds across most urban areas.
The interplay of these systems also carries a significant maritime risk. The HKO warned of sea swells and advised the public to avoid coastal zones and suspend all water-based activities until the weather stabilizes.
Coastal Flooding Risks Highlighted
A major concern stemming from the dual weather phenomena is the potential for elevated sea levels. The HKO forecast that during the high tide late Monday night, sea levels along the coast would generally be about 0.5 meters higher than normal.
Authorities warned that low-lying coastal areas could face localized flooding during the early morning hours on Tuesday. In Victoria Harbour, water levels were predicted to rise to approximately three meters above Chart Datum, underscoring the elevated risk to infrastructure and public safety near the water’s edge.
As Phoenix tracks away, the northeast monsoon will quickly become the dominant weather factor. Forecasters are monitoring local wind conditions and may opt to replace the current tropical cyclone warning with the Strong Monsoon Signal, or cancel all warnings entirely.
Outlook: Weakening Cyclone and Cold Front
Following the passage of Phoenix, the region can expect a noticeable shift in weather patterns. The cyclone is expected to fade as it moves over the Taiwan Strait, giving way to clearer skies later in the week along the Guangdong coast.
Looking ahead, the long-range forecast indicates a replenishment of the northeast monsoon is expected to reach southern China early next week. This shift will usher in cooler, dryer conditions for Hong Kong and surrounding areas, marking a transition into late autumn weather as the impact of the tropical system subsides. The public is advised to monitor the latest updates from the HKO and take necessary precautions, particularly regarding maritime safety and coastal hazards.
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